The objectives of this course are to enable the students to understand the basic concepts of statistical decision theory and risk analysis and apply these concepts in engineering design and decision-making, with particular emphasis on civil engineering problems.  The students will also be able to model and analyze uncertainties, conduct practical risk evaluation, formulate risk-based design criteria, risk-benefit trade-offs and optimal decisions.

TOPICAL OUTLINE

1. Introduction and basic background.                               

2. Brief review of relevant basic statistical and probability concepts.

3. Bayesian statistical concepts and systematic updating of engineering information.

4. Engineering decision analysis. Types of decision making. Decision trees. Decision criteria.

5. Utility theory. Single and multiple objective decisions.

6. Uncertainty and risk analyses.  Basic variability and prediction error. Modelling and analysis of uncertainties. Risk evaluation and formulation of risk-based design. Applications involving structural design, slope stability, etc.

7. Stochastic modelling of engineering problems in the space and time domains.  Spatial correlation. Applications involving the modelling of random media.